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Reasonable and Probable

Jonathan Mergott started in the gold industry in 2008 as an analyst and portfolio manager for a private investment fund, focused in precious metals and precious metal stocks, following in the path of a long history of family involved in Precious Metals. His father, Jack Mergott, was well known in the gold sector and spent 20 years working closely with mining companies and gold analysts, fund managers, and private investors as an investor realtions conslutant.  His Great Grandfather was a prominent and successful private investor in gold and silver. His grandfather, "Nick" Mergott, wrote for Barron's and was broker early in his career working with Jim Sinclair, who famously called the Gold bull run in the 1970s and 2000s, saying about him, "Nick Mergott was one of the best value investors I have ever met."

 

In 2012, Jonathan brought his expertise on the gold industry and mining companies to LH Roth Investor Relations as a consultant, representing multiple companies over a half a decade, including Tanzanian Royalty Exploration, where he had the privilege of working closely with Jim Sinclair. Within 6 months of starting, TRX stock had risen 100% while the GDX had lost over 30%.

 

Since 2018, Jonathan has focused on managing his 501c3, non-profit organization, The Meta C Mergott Foundation, as well as his own business, Alchemy Financial. Jonathan gained attention in the Gold industry in 2020, after a history of accurate analysis and timing major turning points in the gold market. He warned of risk in the sector in June 2021, warning similarities to 2013 bear market. GDX proceeded to lose 50% in the next 2 years. Throughout, he has repeatedly nailed bottoms in the gold market for short term profits while the sector has languished while most wrongfully predicted much higher moves.

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In Fall of 2023, he stated in articles and on Twitter, as well as an interview with Palisades Gold Radio, that market behavior was indicating a break of 2100 on gold was finally going to come. He urged fed up holders of mining companies to not "flush out" now, because many stood to have very significant rallies of 100% or more, quickly gaining back years of losses. He predicted gold would reach at least 2400 in the coming months and it would do so quickly, once 2100 broke. In March 2024, gold broke above 2100 and reached 2400 in just 6 weeks while many miners doubled from their lows, exactly as he predicted.

 

He's shared his thoughts and analysis for years on his blog, on twitter and in interviews and started his subscription service in April 2023. The thesis here at Alchemy Financial, is "reasonable and probable. "

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The key to success in the gold market has been made very clear. It is NOT been accomplished, buying and holding miners, or speculating on Jrs making 10,000% returns. Holding physical, SOME speculative investments, and a focus on TIMING has been the winning formula. Gold has periods of spectacular gains. Buying miners at the right times and taking profits on them has given fantastic gains, along with long term holdings in  physical gold and having reasonable and probable expectations, and not treating investments as lottery tickets.

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